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  • What’s Next For Equities

    Well it’s official, the lazy days of summer are over. The kids are back in school, Wall Street is back to work and Halloween decorations are already showing up in stores. Volatility in markets has returned, and our risk models are beginning to make adjustments to portfolios. September and October are notorious for some of the highest market volatility on […]

March 14, 2017

What The Fed is Watching

Last week we shared how the Bloomberg World Interest Rate Probability Indicator reading reached the 100 percent level for a rate increase at the March 15th FOMC meeting. (See Beware The Ides of March) While we pay close attention to WIRP, it’s not the only data point pointing towards higher interest rates. Strong Data Just about every Federal Reserve comment, […]
March 8, 2017

Bond Investors: Beware the Ides of March

While stocks are off to a strong start this year, most bond indexes are down and the risks for bond investors continues to grow. The culprit? Rising interest rates. When rates rise, bond prices fall. The next Federal Open Markets Committee interest rate announcement is March 15th. What is the probability of another increase in rates? What about further rate […]
February 17, 2017

Winning Streaks: Why You Should Pay Attention

The current rally in U.S. equities is quite extraordinary. New all-time highs, falling volatility and broad sector participation are just a few of the characteristics of the rally that started in November 2016 and continues today. The current momentum is especially interesting considering it was born in the backdrop of a highly-contested U.S. election, and endured a December 2016 interest […]
May 11, 2016

Chapter 11 Filings Reach 2008 Level

Economic imbalances, anemic global growth and the bursting of the commodity super cycle has created a challenging environment for over-levered companies, a climate strikingly similar to 2008. Through May 3, 2016 US Chapter 11 filings have accelerated to match the pace set in the Great Recession of 2008. So far this year, 37 companies with $100 million or more in […]
January 12, 2016

Raising Rates Into Defaults

Yesterday markets saw a large default in the energy space.  Arch Coal filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy citing tumbling domestic coal demand as the reason. Arch Coal’s default on $3.2 billion will raise the metals and mining sector’s trailing 12-month default rate from 11% at the end of December to 15% through today.  However, it will bring the default rate […]
October 20, 2014

The QE Experiment: What Now?

In the coming days the Federal Reserve is set to end Quantitative Easing, the six year economic stimulus experiment. Quantitative Easing, or “QE” has been a hotly debated topic over the years. We have discussed its impact on markets and investor behavior often. Whatever one’s view on the moral hazards of QE, there is no denying the actions taken by […]

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